Editor’s note: On Tuesday, the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season listed Syracuse as No. 19. The Daily Orange will reflect the rankings of the College Football Playoff and not the Associated Press for the remainder of the season.

No. 22 Syracuse (6-2, 3-2 Atlantic Coast) visits Wake Forest (4-4, 1-3) in Winston-Salem, North Carolina on Saturday afternoon. The Orange is coming off of its first-ranked win of the season, a 51-41 victory over then-No. 22 North Carolina State. The win elevated Syracuse into the AP Top-25 for the first time since 2001 and earned the Orange the No. 19 ranking in the ESPN College Football Playoff Rankings.

Here’s what to know before Saturday’s matchup.

All-time series: Syracuse leads 4-3

Last time they played: Syracuse hosted the Demon Deacons in its first home contest since toppling No. 2 Clemson. Without starter Eric Dungey, backup Zack Mahoney filled in admirably, throwing for 384 yards and three touchdowns, but he did cough up two crucial interceptions. In this game, Wake Forest’s offense couldn’t be stopped. After Syracuse took a 38-24 halftime lead, the Demon Deacons scored 40 second-half points to SU’s five. Wake Forest’s 64 points were the most ever by a Syracuse opponent inside the Carrier Dome. Senior quarterback John Wolford decimated the Orange with 499 yards of offense and six total touchdowns to lead Wake Forest over SU 64-43.

The Wake Forest report: The Wake Forest offense, as usual, is built upon its run game. The Demon Deacons go with two backs game in and game out with Matt Colburn II and Cade Carney with Colburn slightly out-touching Carney. Both though have proven more than capable, averaging over five yards per carry.

In the passing game, Sam Hartman has tried to fill the void left by John Wolford at the end of last season. Although he hasn’t matched Wolford’s production, Hartman, one of the top quarterbacks in the class of 2018, has filled in nicely, completing 55 percent of his passes for 213 yards per game and 14 touchdowns

Where the Demon Deacons really struggle is defensively. Wake Forest gives up 287 passing yards per game to its opponents and score 36.8 points per game. The key factor in this Wake Forest scoring defense is its inability to stop teams in the red zone. While Wake Forest scores a touchdown 58 percent of the time it reaches the red zone, its opponents are successful 95 percent of the time, scoring on 20 of 21 red zone drives this season, something Syracuse does not do all that well. The Wake Forest defense is littered with injuries, so people with little experience have been thrust into big-time situations all year long and have struggled to catch up.

How Syracuse beats Wake: Syracuse needs to open the game hot. Both defenses struggle in the area that their opponent succeeds. Syracuse can’t stop the run and Wake Forest has two capable backs that do most of their damage out of run-pass options, which have burned SU badly this year. And Wake struggles to stop the pass due to injuries in the secondary and simply poor coverage.

Eric Dungey needs to come out firing the way he did against North Carolina State, connecting on downfield throws, moving the offense quickly, and finding players like Sean Riley and Nykeim Johnson out across the middle. Colburn and Carney will likely have a field day against the SU run defense, so the way to get the ball out of their hands is to score early, build a hefty lead, and maintain possession.

Wake Forest has turned the ball over in every game but one, meanwhile SU has the best turnover differential in the ACC. That should tell the story of the game. Who can score first and who can win the turnover battle.

Player to watch: Matt Colburn II, running back, No. 22

Colburn showed what he is capable of last week when he torched Louisville for 243 yards and three touchdowns. Up until that point, Colburn had actually struggled for the greater part of the year, only breaking 5o-plus yards twice, once against Florida State with 71, and once Boston College with 117. But the senior is a strong runner who can do damage out of the backfield running, catching and blocking. He’ll be the go-to guy for Wake come Saturday’s contest.

Published on November 2, 2018 at 2:25 pm

Contact Matt: mdliberm@syr.edu