With just under three minutes left, Syracuse’s lead over North Carolina State evaporated. After mounting a 10-point lead midway through the fourth quarter, the Wolfpack suddenly trailed by just three. Down 44-41, NC State suddenly had 3:12 to drive for a potential game-winning touchdown, something the Orange failed to stop in their two losses of the season.

After back-to-back plays for no gain, NC State quarterback Ryan Finley dropped back. Looking for a first down on 3rd-and-10, Finley threw a pass down the left side, but SU linebacker Andrew Armstrong snatched the ball for a late interception in Wolfpack territory to seal the win and continue Syracuse’s defensive dominance on third down.

“That’s what we call our money down,” Alton Robinson said. “(We) definitely ramp it up.”

In a season in which No. 13 Syracuse (7-2, 4-2 Atlantic Coast) has defied expectations, the Orange are doing exactly what head coach Dino Babers has always preached about: the little things. SU enters its upcoming home matchup with Louisville (2-7, 0-6) ranked fourth in the nation on third down defense which helps Syracuse, a quick strike offensive team, control possession.

 This season, Syracuse’s opponents are converting on just 26.47 percent of third downs, sliding in just behind Miami (FL) and UAB. And while players believe that SU owns a third-down advantage at home due to the noise echoing in the Carrier Dome, the team’s third down splits on the road are nearly even with the ones at home: 26.15 percent at home versus 26.62 percent on the road.

North Carolina State has been the only team this season to break 40 percent on third down against Syracuse, converting on six of 15 attempts, and the Wolfpack have been one of the best teams in the nation on third down, moving the chains 46.24 percent of the time. Prior to its game against Syracuse, NC State ranked No. 1 in the country, converting a first down 58.49 percent of the time. The worst opponent percentage comes from Florida State, which managed just one conversion in 14 attempts.

That’s problematic for Louisville, which enters Friday’s contest ranked 68th in the nation in third-down conversion offense. In addition, the Cardinals struggle mightily on the road. UofL is the 11th-worst third-down offense in the country on the road, moving the chains 29.31 percent of the time.

With Syracuse’s stingy third-down defense, and Louisville’s struggles offensively, Syracuse could have a chance to dominate possession. Despite Syracuse running the fourth-most plays in college football, and attempting to score on drives within short time, SU still controls possession in the majority of contests it has played in. Meanwhile, the Cardinals build up their minutes toward the end of games once they have surrendered a huge deficit and teams stop throwing the ball.

Louisville also puts forth the worst third-down defense in the country, allowing opponents to continue drives 55.14 percent of the time. For a middle of the pack third-down offense like Syracuse, there may be an opportunity to run up and down the field early and build a substantial lead.

Signs point to a Syracuse blowout. SU’s offense has been overpowering at points this season, while Louisville has one of the worst defenses in the country and struggles to score on offense. Yet Louisville has never lost to Syracuse in the ACC. This has been a long-circled game on the calendar, Eric Dungey said.

“They smacked us the past three years,” Dungey said. “That’s the one team that’s had our number.”

Published on November 7, 2018 at 11:29 pm

Contact Matt: mdliberm@syr.edu