As No. 12 Syracuse (7-6, 4-0 Atlantic Coast) prepares for Saturday’s regular-season finale against in-state rival Colgate (7-7, 3-5 Patriot League), it is impossible to ignore Sunday’s NCAA tournament selection show.

Syracuse finds itself in a peculiar situation. The Orange swept ACC play in the regular season, beating Duke and Virginia on the road and taking down Notre Dame and North Carolina at home. SU is also the only team in the country to win two games against teams ranked in the top five in RPI. That is one side of Syracuse.

The other side is a team that has struggled to find its identity and groove in the non-conference slate. SU’s only win against a ranked non-conference opponent came in the third week of its season against then-No. 9 Army. But the Black Knights could not continue their hot start and have finished the season with a lackluster 5-7 record.

In other opportunities against top-tier non-conference teams, SU has been shelled. Albany and Johns Hopkins each walloped the Orange in the Carrier Dome, winning by a combined 23 goals. SU also gave up late-game leads against Rutgers and Navy, in addition to losing at Cornell by five.

Heading into the final weekend of play ahead of Sunday’s bracket release, Syracuse is hoping that conference favorites win their conference tournaments, said Big Ten Network lacrosse analyst Mark Dixon.

Syracuse currently ranks 12th in the nation in RPI, and 16 teams make the tournament, but other teams below Syracuse in RPI will receive automatic bids to the tournament for winning their conference tournaments. Massachusetts and Saint Joseph’s rank 24th and 32nd respectively in RPI, but are the favorites to win their conferences.

At 7-6, Syracuse is favored to beat Colgate come Saturday, and should that happen, SU is likely in the tournament, Dixon said. If SU loses, it is out. But should the favored SU win, there are other teams in the mix that could make the bubble more precarious for the Orange.

Who Can Hurt the Orange?

Ohio State

Syracuse fans should be rooting against Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament, Dixon said. The Buckeyes currently rank 16th in RPI and have no marquee wins against non-conference opponents. OSU’s best win outside of the Big Ten came in a 15-9 victory against Boston University, who ranks 33rd in RPI. But unlike SU, who finished with a losing record out of the ACC, Ohio State went 5-4 out of conference.

In conference though, Ohio State took down Maryland, who ranks first in the country in RPI, in addition to beating Rutgers, who beat SU. If Ohio State takes down Johns Hopkins on Thursday night as well, it would do wonders for the Buckeyes and cause trouble for SU.

Marquette and Georgetown

Turning attention to the Big East, Syracuse fans should desperately want Denver to win the conference tournament. Only one other team aside from Denver, Villanova, ranks higher in RPI than SU. The Wildcats currently sit at 10th. With wins over Penn State and Yale out of conference, Villanova has a good shot of playing past Sunday, Dixon said. But it is not a lock.

The ACC is a stronger conference than the Big East, so should Denver win the conference tournament, there is a case that SU should rank ahead of the Wildcats. But if any other team aside from Denver or Villanova wins the Big East, such as Marquette or Georgetown, that is one less slot for Syracuse.

Who Can Help the Orange?

Cornell

One conference tournament where SU isn’t rooting for the favorites is in the Ivy League. Four teams remain: Yale, Cornell, Brown and Penn. Syracuse should want Cornell to win that title, Dixon said, because it would boost the Orange’s RPI. Yale is in no danger of missing the tournament, while a semifinal loss to either Brown or Penn would mean that they both cannot qualify for the tournament due to sub-.500 records. But Cornell is likely a team that will be seeded higher than SU, with wins against Syracuse, Penn State and Lehigh, and if the Big Red knocks off Brown and then perhaps Ivy League-favorite Yale, that would boost RPI numbers for Cornell and Syracuse. A Yale win in the Ivy League tournament would not doom SU, but if Brown or Penn pulled off two upsets, one less spot would remain for Syracuse.

Albany

The Great Danes are the heavy favorites to win the America East conference tournament and should do so. But if they don’t, they are still easily getting into the tournament. No other team in the America East will likely make the tournament, Dixon said. Aside from Albany, the best team in that conference has been Vermont, who has not beaten a ranked opponent all season. Unless the Catamounts win the conference tournament, they don’t get in. SU should root for Albany.

Johns Hopkins

JHU nearly beat Maryland in the two teams’ regular-season matchup, an 8-7 triple-overtime finish. But the Blue Jays are a team that demolished SU in the regular season. If they keep winning, their RPI rises and so does Syracuse’s. Looking at the Big Ten Tournament, Maryland winning doesn’t do much for SU aside from preventing Ohio State from winning. A JHU win could help the Orange’s case come Sunday, Dixon said.

Published on May 3, 2018 at 6:45 pm

Contact Matt: mdliberm@syr.edu